No.211
1998.10

TRANSITIONS

Wesley Huntress

　　At the opening of the 20th Century, humans did not know how to fly through the air. There had been exploration of the sky by a small number of inventors using balloons and unpowered gliders, but the idea of humans flying through the air on powered machines was almost universally unimaginable. Even after the Wright brothers had made their first flight in 1903, they could never have imagined the idea of a huge Boeing 747 routinely carrying hundreds of passengers in perfect comfort from New York to Tokyo in less than half a day.

　　Now, at the opening of the 21st Century it is equally unimaginable what people will be doing routinely in 2098. Humans do not know to fly routinely through space. A small number of explorers have flown in space, but they are the equivalents of those late 19th Century explorers flying in the air with balloons and gliders. In the late 19th Century, commerce and travel occurred over land and sea. In the late 20th Century, commerce and travel occur through the air. In the late 21st Century, commerce and travel may very well occur through space.

　　The last 100 years have seen immense technological advance. In the 20th Century we learned to make air travel less expensive, so that it changed from the hobby of the elite to a tool for everyday commerce. The same will occur in the 21st Century for space travel. Technological advance will reach a point sometime in the next 50 years where space travel will become routine for humans. In the meantime, technological advance will allow ever more exciting and capable robotic exploration in our Solar System and beyond. Rather than human colonies, we can expect to be able to deploy robotic, self-sustaining colonies on Solar System bodies to conduct unsupervised exploration based on simple goals provided by humans.

　　Information technology will allow the whole public to experience the remote, robotic adventure as it unfolds almost as entertainment. This will be necessary in order to gain the public support required for extensive scientific exploration of space. The public will require some more tangible return for their tax money than just data for their science elite. Rather than waiting on the internet for the next image to be released from Mars Pathfinder, they will be able to watch at video rates through the eyes of the lander as it descends to the surface, and watch through the eyes of the rover as it traverses across Mars.

　　The advance of technology and reduction in complexity and cost for space exploration has already allowed the participation by nations other than just the U.S. and Russia--the traditional two competitors over the last 40 years since the dawn of the space age. Japan in this decade has blossomed into a mature space-faring nation of its own, on a par with the United States and with complete capability for spacecraft and instrument development, space launch and operations, including space observatories and scientific missions to the planets. ISAS has just recently launched Nozomi, a full-fledged, comprehensive scientific mission to the planet Mars, to be followed soon with the Lunar-A mission to the Moon with an orbiter and lander/penetrators, and then Muses-C to return a sample of the asteroid Nereus to earth. These are ambitious, audacious missions of which any space-faring nation would be extremely proud.

　　NASA is proud and delighted to be a partner with ISAS on many of its missions. There is a real sense of admiration in NASA Space Science for the systematic and professional manner in which the ISAS program of the scientific exploration of space is carried out. ISAS has been our most consistent and reliable partner in Space Science. It is my wish for the future that it should continue so. I have taken particular delight during my tenure as the NASA Associate Administrator for Space Science with the developing partnership between us. I have enjoyed a wonderful scientific, cultural and personal relationship with ISAS and its staff. Thank you.

(前ＮＡＳＡ宇宙科学応用局長)